Housing is the issue that frames everyday life in New York — from rent checks in Brooklyn to single-family purchases upstate. As the 2026 election cycle approaches, candidates for statewide and major city offices are staking out competing visions for how to address affordability, stabilize neighborhoods, speed up development, protect renters and unlock financing. This article reviews the major candidates, what they’re proposing, and what it would mean for New York homebuyers, renters, developers and investors.
How We Gauge Trends: Key Metrics
To judge whether a candidate’s housing plan is realistic and targeted at the real problems, we monitor a set of metrics that combine mortgage, real-estate and programmatic indicators. These are the same kinds of measures mortgage and housing analysts use to detect friction points, and they map cleanly to policy levers.
Mortgage application volume / refinance & purchase loan originations
How many purchase mortgages are being applied for and closed in New York (conventional and government-backed)? Rising purchase originations usually indicate stronger demand for ownership; falling originations can reflect affordability constraints (high mortgage rates), fewer eligible buyers, or neutral policy signals. For the rental sector we substitute vacancy rates and lease-application volumes as demand indicators.
Why it matters to candidates: policies that aim to increase home-ownership (down-payment assistance, tax incentives) should show up in rising purchase originations over time; rental-first strategies should correlate with stable vacancy rates and rising affordable-unit starts.
Processing times / closing times
How long from mortgage application to closing? How long between zoning approval and certificate of occupancy for new units? Are inspection or permitting backlogs stretching project timelines? Delays show up as higher carrying costs for developers, longer waits for eligible buyers, and greater risk of projects stalling.
Why it matters to candidates: real reforms to housing supply must speed approvals and reduce bureaucratic bottlenecks — otherwise promised unit counts remain aspirational.
Loan-delivery bottlenecks / underwriting backlog
Are lenders or federal verification services (tax transcripts, VA/USDA certifications, flood insurance) slowing originations? In New York, this matters both for high-end owner-occupiers and for subsidized/VA/FHA buyers in outer boroughs and upstate communities.
Why it matters to candidates: plans that expand subsidized home-ownership must account for federal verification and delivery flows; otherwise, subsidies sit on paper while closings lag.
Sector segmentation — conventional vs government-insured vs GSE-guaranteed loans
Which parts of the market are being targeted — market-rate ownership, FHA/VA first-time buyer programs, or affordable rental (LIHTC) production? Each sector has different financing needs and different vulnerability to federal or regulatory disruptions.
Why it matters to candidates: an effective housing platform must say whether it prioritizes owner-occupation, rental production, or deep affordability, because solutions, timelines and funding sources differ.
Regional or lender-type variation
New York State isn’t homogenous: Manhattan and NYC outer boroughs, Long Island suburbs, the Hudson Valley, and upstate New York face different cost structures and development capacity. Some lenders and regions rely more on government programs (USDA upstate, NYCHA subsidies in city markets) and are consequently more exposed to federal or state operational issues.
Why it matters to candidates: one-size-fits-all statewide mandates may misfire; localized support or flexible funding often produces better results.
Secondary market liquidity / investor confidence
Are private developers and capital providers confident the state will preserve predictable rules and incentives? Large policy swings (or perceived threats to returns) can chill construction lending and slow starts.
Why it matters to candidates: big production targets require private capital; plans that spook investors can stall supply.
Policy/agency announcements / temporary waivers
What legislative moves, state budget items, or emergency guidance are being issued (for example, to speed transfer of publicly-owned land, fast-track permits, or provide temporary financing)? These short-term policies often determine whether an ambitious plan produces units quickly.
Why it matters to candidates: voters should prefer plans that include concrete regulatory and funding changes that can be implemented in years, not mere slogans.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac & the Shutdown: What’s Actually Affected (and why it matters in New York)
Many New Yorkers rely on mortgage finance that, even if originated locally, depends on federal services (tax transcripts, VA/USDA credentials, NFIP flood insurance) or the broader secondary market. It’s therefore important to understand how federal disruptions ripple into local housing outcomes.
Are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac “closed” during a shutdown?
No — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not federal agencies and historically continue operations during federal shutdowns. They have issued temporary guidance to lenders when federal services are disrupted. For example, in 2025 the GSEs issued lender guidance to address the impacts of a federal government shutdown (temporary modifications to selling/servicing policies).
Does a federal shutdown impact New York mortgage closings?
Yes — but usually in specific ways rather than a blanket stop. A shutdown that suspends services such as IRS transcript issuance, NFIP flood policy issuance or VA/USDA staff capacity can delay closings that depend on those verifications. Lenders and GSEs historically provide temporary work-arounds, but those add time and cost. In New York, the effects are most visible in segments that depend on federal verification: VA loans for veterans in upstate or suburban communities, USDA loans in some rural counties, and flood-zone closings in coastal neighborhoods.
What to watch (New York implications)
Conventional loans (GSE-guaranteed) typically continue to flow, but if tax transcripts or flood-insurance verification stops, underwriting may rely on alternate documentation. That can slow closings.
Government-insured loans (FHA/VA/USDA) are more exposed to federal agency staffing and may face delays if agency certifications are paused.
Local developers and renters: any delay that slows closings or increases financing cost can affect project timelines in NYC and across the state, so candidates should show how state policy buffers those risks.
Statewide & Broad Patterns (New York housing in 2025–2026)
Before examining candidate platforms, here’s a quick snapshot of where New York housing stands — the backdrop against which campaign proposals must perform.
Affordability remains acute in NYC and many suburbs; policymakers continue to wrestle with rising rents, stagnant wages for middle- and lower-income households, and limited affordable supply. That has made housing a dominant electoral issue. (See coverage of state affordability pushes and budget actions.)
State action is active: Governor Kathy Hochul’s FY-2026 budget included housing legislation to expand affordability and access, and the governor has pursued measures that include limits on large institutional buyers of single-family homes to slow investor absorption of starter housing. These items form the immediate policy frame for 2026 debates.
City dynamics matter: New York City remains the epicenter of the housing crisis in the state — policies proposed for the city (rent regulation, NYCHA investment, use of public land) are central to candidates’ platforms and will influence statewide politics as well. Recent NYCHA plans and city housing programs are moving forward and will be a key test for campaign promises.
Who Are the Major Candidates — And What Are They Saying?
The 2026 cycle will include many contests (governor, congressional seats, mayoral contests in some cities in 2025 that feed into the statewide narrative). Below we prioritize the most consequential statewide and citywide figures who are shaping the housing debate in New York as the 2026 mid-terms approach.
Reminder: candidate fields evolve quickly — this article focuses on declared and heavily discussed contenders.
Governor: Kathy Hochul (incumbent, Democrat) — what she’s proposing
Governor Kathy Hochul has been active on affordability in the FY-26 budget and state initiatives. Her administration has signed broad housing legislation as part of the FY-2026 enacted budget that aims to increase affordability and access across the state; Hochul has also proposed measures to slow institutional investor accumulation of starter homes and to provide a broader affordability agenda (including tax measures intended to relieve cost-of-living pressures). Governor Kathy Hochul+1
Key housing themes in Hochul’s portfolio and statements:
Budget-level housing legislation: The FY-26 budget included bills aimed at improving affordability, expanding production and making state tools available for housing creation. Governor Kathy Hochul
Restricting investor purchases of starter homes: Hochul proposed legislation to slow large institutional buyers from buying up the single-family starter market (e.g., a waiting period for large funds), arguing this preserves inventory for first-time buyers. AP News
Broad “affordability” packages: Her broader agenda has combined housing, tax tweaks and targeted investment to relieve household costs. Politico
What this means: Hochul’s approach blends production, targeted restrictions on certain investor activity, and budgetary tools. Her incumbency gives her access to state budgets and levers (land use, subsidy programs) — and her record will be the reference point for challengers.
Potential or discussed GOP challengers and other statewide figures
Early coverage and “way-too-early” previews for 2026 list potential Republican challengers and other figures who may test Hochul on housing. Political previews suggest the field may include established congressional Republicans and other state figures; the precise GOP nominee was still forming as of mid-2025. Candidates on the GOP side typically emphasize regulatory relief, local control, and measures to spur construction through reduced regulation. City & State New York+1
What to watch: Whether a Republican challenger focuses on supply-side deregulation (reducing local permitting friction) or on tax relief for homeowners will determine how the statewide debate shapes up.
New York City (major influence on statewide discourse) — key 2025/2026 contenders and platforms
While the statewide race frames policy broadly, the NYC mayoral race and city campaigns materially affect housing policy in the state’s largest market — and therefore influence the statewide debate.
Zohran Mamdani (Democrat, NYC mayoral nominee) — aggressive renter protection & production
Zohran Mamdani’s platform in the 2025 mayoral cycle proposed sweeping rental-market actions and large production targets: proposals included a multi-year rent freeze for rent-stabilized units, and ambitious goals to build large numbers of rent-stabilized units (e.g., targets in the hundreds of thousands over a decade), financed by major municipal and state bond commitments and activation of public land. His campaign rhetoric emphasizes tenant protection and rapid affordable production. NYHC+1
Why it matters: A mayor who pushes aggressive rent regulation and large public financing commitments can change market expectations, affect investor confidence, and reshape developer appetite — and a city plan of that scale would interact with and challenge state policy tools.
Andrew Cuomo (Independent run / high profile) — big supply targets and conversions
Former Governor Andrew Cuomo (running an independent campaign in 2025 after losing the Democratic primary) proposed large unit targets and broad subsidies to produce and preserve affordable units, including multi-billion capital commitments and activation of vacant or underused buildings (conversions of office to residential). His platform emphasizes leveraging public financing and conversion strategies to expand supply at scale.
Why it matters: Cuomo’s supply-heavy plan aims at scale and speed through conversions and large subsidy commitments, and thus places emphasis on unlocking financing and repurposing existing assets — a different tack from direct rent-control freezes.
Other city figures & the local policy environment
Other candidates and local leaders (including Republicans and independents) favour a variety of mixes: preserving existing stock, encouraging private investment (with assurances to small landlords), or prioritizing NYCHA capital investment and public housing transformation. The upshot is a wide range of city-level prescriptions that will set the tone for statewide policy debates. The Guardian+1
Comparing the Visions: Where Candidates Agree and Where They Differ
Below are the main fault lines you’ll see through debate, campaign messaging and short-term legislative manoeuvres.
1) Supply vs Demand suppression vs Protection
Supply-focused plans (e.g., legislative incentives, conversions, unlocking state land) promise long-term easing of prices if executed and financed — championed by some supply-oriented proposals and certain candidates. Cuomo’s conversion and large supply proposals fall in this camp. NYHC
Demand suppression / rent-centric plans (e.g., rent freezes or stricter rent regulation) aim to immediately reduce tenant cost but risk investor pullback, maintenance shortfalls, or supply distortion if not paired with production. Mamdani’s aggressive rent stabilization and rent-freeze ideas are an example. NYHC
Hybrid approaches combine protections with production and activation of public resources (some of Hochul’s budget steps and state subsidy programs fall here). Governor Kathy Hochul
2) Big public financing vs market leverage
Candidates differ on how much the public sector should directly finance housing vs use public funds to leverage private capital. Plans that contemplate multi-billion bond financing for housing may be transformative but require clear repayment and governance plans (see NYC proposals), while leveraging pension funds or bonds (as some candidates propose) requires careful legal and fiscal framing. NYHC
3) Local control vs state mandates
Some candidates favor local decision-making and voluntary incentives. Others favor state mandates (zoning or minimum production requirements near transit, for example) to overcome local resistance. The MBTA-area and other regional mandates outside NYC have precedent and will be a reference point for New York debates. How state and local powers are balanced will be decisive in implementation feasibility. City & State New York
4) Protecting renters vs protecting small landlords
Proposals differ in how they treat landlord economics (tax relief, property-tax resets, support for small landlords’ capital needs) versus tenant protections (rent caps, eviction limits). The more aggressive renter protections proposed in some platforms will be weighed against the risk of reduced small-landlord maintenance or exits.
Implementation Reality: Bottlenecks That Campaigns Must Address
Campaign promises—especially big-number unit targets or sweeping rent policy—will only matter if candidates grapple with these implementation constraints:
Permit and approval delays
Zoning approvals, community review, environmental review and permitting can add months or years to project timelines. Candidates promising rapid unit production must specify how they will slash permit times and increase agency capacity.
Financing pipeline & investor confidence
Massive public subsidy pledges need credible financing vehicles (bonds, tax credits, pension leverage). If the private sector perceives policy risk (e.g., unexpected rent caps), it may reduce construction lending, undercutting supply promises.
Public housing transformation & maintenance (NYCHA)
NYCHA capital needs and the transformation plan are central to city housing health — a candidate’s approach to NYCHA funding and management will be a major test of governance capacity. NYC Government
Federal verification & program flows (mortgages & subsidies)
State programs that rely on federal underwriting (e.g., VA, USDA, some FHA processes) are vulnerable to federal disruptions; candidates should show contingency planning to prevent program stalls during federal slowdowns. The GSEs and federal agencies historically issue guidance in shutdowns, but state policy should account for potential delays. Fannie Mae+1
What Voters Should Ask Candidates
When you see a candidate’s speech, ask for specifics tied to the metrics above:
Unit targets and timelines — How many units will you produce/preserve in 1, 3 and 10 years, by income band (market, moderate, deep affordability)?
Permit/approval time — What exact permit-time reductions will you enact (e.g., target of X days from application to permit) and by what authority?
Funding plan — Exactly how will you fund multi-billion commitments? Which bonds, taxes, or funds will you use? What are repayment and oversight plans?
NYCHA & public housing — What is the first 12-month plan to speed repairs and capital projects? How will you fund them? NYC Government
Renter protections vs supply signals — If you support rent freezes/ caps, how will you ensure these do not reduce maintenance or lead to landlord flight?
Program delivery — If your plan relies on federal partners (FHA/VA/USDA), what contingency steps will you take if a federal verification or program is temporarily unavailable? nar.realtor
Near-Term Outlook: What to Expect If Different Proposals Are Adopted
If the winning coalition emphasizes production + conversion (large conversion targets, public land activation, subsidies): expect a multi-year uptick in starts if financing and permitting bottlenecks are addressed, but delivery will lag while approvals and construction progress. Cuomo-style proposals fit here. NYHC
If the winning coalition emphasizes rent protection and immediate tenant relief: expect immediate relief for many renters but risk of capital pullback if private owners fear lower returns; pairing protections with aggressive public production is essential. Mamdani-style measures illustrate this pathway and its tradeoffs. NYHC
If the governor prioritizes targeted budget tools and investor limits: policies like limiting large institutional bulk purchases of starter homes and targeted subsidies can help first-time buyers and slow institutional absorption, but they must be carefully designed to avoid legal and market complexity. Hochul’s FY-26 steps show this hybrid approach. Governor Kathy Hochul+1
How to Use This Guide as a Voter or Industry Observer
Demand specifics — Unit goals, permit-time reductions, and financing mechanics are the only campaign promises you should treat as credible.
Match promises to metrics — If a candidate promises X units, ask how many permits, starts, and completions those translate into and by what date. Metrics like permit-timelines and mortgage originations are the quickest way to confirm progress.
Watch NYCHA and public land activation — Real progress in NYC and statewide affordability requires a functioning plan for public housing and reuse of public property. NYC Government
Expect friction from federal interdependence — Federal processes (IRS transcripts, FEMA/NFIP, VA/USDA) can create execution risk; candidates should show contingency planning. Fannie Mae
Investor confidence matters — Large, credible production requires harnessing private capital as well as public subsidy; disruptive regulatory shocks can slow the pipeline.
