Vermont is in the midst of a housing squeeze. Prices are high, inventory is thin, and the policy question looms large: who will fix this — or will the next elected officials simply inherit the bottlenecks? As the 2026 mid-terms approach, housing is emerging as a key battleground in Vermont politics. This article walks through how we measure housing-market trends, then looks at the major candidates for statewide offices in Vermont, what they’re saying about housing, and what it could mean for your mortgage, your rent, and the pace of new homes in the Green Mountain State.
1. How We Gauge Trends: Key Metrics
Mortgage Application Volume / Refinance & Purchase Loan Originations
One of the most basic measures is how many mortgages are being applied for and closed — both in purchase loans and refinance transactions, and by conventional lenders as well as government-insured/federally-guaranteed vehicles. In Vermont:
If fewer purchase-loans are closing, that may signal affordability constraints (high rates, low supply), or underwriting/income issues.
For renters looking to buy, that signals whether home-ownership is accessible or stalled.
For policymakers, if originations drop while those holding off purchase accumulate, a candidate promising first-time-buyer relief may have legitimacy.
The 2026 candidates who address home-ownership need to show how they will affect this metric.
Processing Times / Closing Times
How long does it take from mortgage application (or contract) to closing? How many days from permit application to building occupancy? A long lag indicates friction — in Vermont’s rural markets, manufactured-home segments, or flood-zone areas (Lake Champlain shoreline) may be particularly impacted. For example:
If closing times stretch, buyers may lose contract windows or incur higher interest-cost risk.
On the supply side, if permit or inspection delays persist, fewer units hit the market, which keeps prices elevated.
Candidates promising to “speed up housing” must show how they’ll shorten these times.
Loan-Delivery Bottlenecks / Underwriting Backlog
Even when applications are submitted, the pipeline from approval to funding to closing matters: underwriting backlogs, verification delays (income, employment, flood insurance), and rural-loan challenges (USDA etc.). In Vermont:
Borrowers using VA or USDA loans (common in rural counties) may face delays if federal verification services lag.
Manufactured-home borrowers or flood-plain properties may face extra scrutiny, slowing delivery.
Supply-side developers applying for state/federal credits may face delays that cascade into unit delivery.
Candidates that propose subsidized-housing or first-time-buyer programs need to account for such bottlenecks.
Sector Segmentation – Conventional vs Government-Insured vs GSE-Guaranteed Loans
Not all housing is the same. Some segments are conventional market-rate ownership; some are government-backed (FHA/VA/USDA); some are rental/affordable units financed through tax credits or state bonds. In Vermont’s housing conversation:
Conventional home-buyers (typically higher income) face one set of issues (rates, supply).
Lower-income buyers or rural borrowers may rely on government-insured or USDA programs (more exposed to federal delays).
Rental/affordable housing production (via the Vermont Housing Finance Agency and tax-credit programs) face different bottlenecks and policy levers.
Candidates must specify which sector they are targeting — ownership, rental, or deep affordability — because the solutions differ.
Regional or Lender-Type Variation
Vermont is not monolithic. From Burlington/Chittenden County to Rutland, to the Northeast Kingdom, housing challenges vary. Some regions rely more heavily on USDA loans or have flood-zone or high-fire-cost issues. Some lenders specialize in manufactured-home loans. For example:
Rural counties may be more reliant on USDA/VA programs; delays in those sectors hit them harder.
High-cost zones (near ski towns or Lake Champlain) may have different supply constraints and investor pressures.
A candidate’s plan might suit one region but not another.
Voters should consider how a candidate’s housing plan fits their region.
Secondary Market Liquidity / Investor Confidence
Housing production isn’t just about government policy — it’s about capital. Developers, lenders, private investors respond to expectations. If investors believe policy will change unpredictably (e.g., sudden rent-cap laws, tax changes), they may pull back, slowing supply. In Vermont:
If the state signals unstable subsidies or tax credits, investor appetite for affordable housing may drop.
If home‐ownership schemes are poorly underwritten, lenders may price risk higher, raising rates for first-time buyers.
Sound candidate housing platforms will recognize investor/financing dynamics, not just regulatory mandates.
Policy/Agency Announcements / Temporary Waivers
Sometimes change is not just about legislation but about agency guidance, temporary waivers, fast-track permitting or state bond programs. In Vermont:
The VHFA’s Qualified Allocation Plan (QAP) for tax-credits sets the rules for rental/affordable production.
Local charter changes (e.g., in Burlington) about property-tax exemptions signal municipal action.
Candidates who propose housing reforms should propose actionable policy announcements and agency-level changes, not just vision statements.
Putting it all together
By tracking these metrics we can ask:
Are closings being delayed?
Are permit/approval times increasing?
Is supply in a bottleneck?
Are first-time-buyers being shut out?
Are rental-housing needs growing without matching production?
Are policies aligned with the real choke-points?
Vermont voters in 2026 should ask: Which candidate understands the pipeline (from application to production) and is offering realistic solutions?
2. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac & the Shutdown: What This Means for Vermont Housing
It may seem distant, but federal mortgage-guarantee agencies and the specter of federal service disruptions matter in Vermont’s housing market.
Are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac “closed” in a government shutdown?
No — institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not government agencies in the sense of being forced to shut down during a federal lapse. They have made clear they continue operations under a federal shutdown.
But: many of their verification processes rely on federal agencies (IRS, flood insurance, VA/USDA certifications). If those services are suspended, the mortgage pipeline can slow.
Does a federal shutdown or service disruption affect Vermont closings or housing finance?
Yes — though typically modest in many cases, especially for conventional loans. But Vermont has some special exposure:
Rural borrowers using USDA programs may face delays if USDA staff are furloughed or commitments delayed.
Flood-zone or lake-shore homes may require NFIP policies; if the NFIP is disrupted, closings can be affected.
For affordable housing projects reliant on federal tax credits, delays in IRS decisions or HUD allocations can stall financing.
What to watch
For conventional loans: Root document flows (tax transcripts, flood insurance) are mostly functioning, but lenders may add manual workarounds if federal systems are out.
For government-insured loans (FHA/VA/USDA): These are more exposed — Vermont lenders serving rural communities should be alert.
For affordable housing production: If tax-credit allocations or compliance reviews are delayed, construction/financing may slow.
In short: The market doesn’t stop, but added friction can raise delivery times, raise cost or lower volume — Vermont voters and housing-stakeholders should prefer candidates who understand these risks.
3. Statewide & Broad Patterns in Vermont Housing (2025–2026)
Before comparing candidates, it’s helpful to recap where Vermont stands on housing — the baseline from which 2026 platforms must work.
Affordability pressure is real: Many regions in Vermont face high home prices (especially near ski regions or attractive counties), combined with slow supply and tight inventory.
Supply remains constrained: Zoning limitations, land-use regulation (including the state’s Act 250 system), labor/skill shortages in construction, and higher costs (especially in remote/rural areas) hamper new builds.
Policy tools are in motion: The Vermont Housing Finance Agency’s draft QAP for 2026–27 emphasizes tax credits for affordable rental units, down-payment assistance and energy-efficient units.
Municipal action matters: Example: in Burlington, a proposal to create a universal homestead property-tax exemption for low/moderate-income homeowners has advanced to committee ahead of the 2026 Town Meeting Day ballot.
Rural vs urban/traditional divide: Urbanizing town-centers (Burlington region) differ sharply from rural Northeast Kingdom towns — the housing stress and policy responses differ greatly by region.
These patterns set the stage. The next question: how do the candidates propose to address these realities?
4. Who Are the Candidates & What Are They Saying on Housing
At this stage of the Vermont 2026 mid-terms, several names are emerging for statewide office. While full platforms may still be under development, the housing statements we do have suggest the main fault-lines.
Candidate A: Governor Phil Scott (Republican, Incumbent)
Background
Governor Phil Scott (R) is eligible for re-election in 2026, though as of mid-2025 he had not officially declared. According to publicly available election trackers, Vermont typically holds its gubernatorial election every two years; the 2026 contest will be closely watched.
Housing Position (emerging)
Governor Scott’s prior housing approach has emphasized pragmatic solutions rather than large ideological shifts. His likely 2026 platform appears to focus on:
Zoning and land-use reform: Streamlining state/local regulations, easing permitting for new housing including accessory dwelling units (ADUs) and modular homes.
Partnerships with private developers: Emphasizing incentives rather than heavy mandates — for example leveraging state infrastructure to unlock buildable lots in growing communities.
Focus on rural communities: Recognizing that Vermont’s housing shortage is acute in both high-growth towns and remote areas, his platform appears aimed at balancing growth and preservation.
Implications & take-aways
Scott’s housing stance is oriented toward supply-side relief via regulatory reform, rather than heavy rent-control or large subsidy programs. For home-buyers in Vermont this signals a potential push toward increased build volume and number of mortgageable units — which would help inventory and affordability long-term. However, the effect on renters and deep affordability may be modest unless paired with subsidy or affordability tools.
Candidate B: Representative Becca Balint (Democrat)
Background
Congresswoman Becca Balint (D) currently holds Vermont’s at-large U.S. House seat and is widely discussed as a potential gubernatorial or Senate candidate in 2026.
Housing Position (stated/inferred)
While her full 2026 housing platform is still emerging, Balint has emphasized:
Affordable home-ownership: Supporting down-payment assistance programs, targeting moderate-income Vermont households toward ownership.
Green building and efficiency: Emphasis on energy-efficient homes, which aligns with Vermont’s climate-goals and makes ownership more accessible by lowering utility/energy cost burdens.
Renter protections and investment in rural regions: Emphasising that rural Vermont must not be left behind — making rental and first-time home-buyer relief part of the agenda.
Implications & take-aways
Balint’s platform leans toward ownership access + affordability + balanced supply growth rather than purely market-rate expansion. For Vermont renters and first-time buyers, this could signal more state-partnered programs, though actual impact will depend on scale and budget commitment.
Candidate C: State Treasurer Mike Pieciak (Democrat)
Background
Mike Pieciak (D), Vermont’s State Treasurer, is mentioned as a possible candidate for statewide office in 2026. His financial background positions him to speak credibly on housing finance.
Housing Position (emerging)
From his portfolio and public remarks, Pieciak emphasizes:
Financial tools for housing: Using state bond-issuance, tax credit structures, and first-time-buyer assistance programs to incentivise both rental and ownership housing.
Infrastructure-linked housing: Positioning housing as part of broader community investment: roads, broadband, utilities — especially in less populous regions.
Modernization of housing finance: Manufactured/modular housing financing, streamlining approvals, and connecting state finance mechanisms with mortgage/lender flows.
Implications & take-aways
Pieciak’s emphasis on finance + leverage means his housing policies could focus on unlocking capital. This could impact mortgage application volumes, reduce cost for buyers, and increase the appeal of certain loan programs. However, supply bottlenecks and permitting remain critical.
Candidate D: Progressive / Third-Party Housing-Justice Candidate
Although specific names are less advanced, Vermont’s strong progressive/third-party tradition (e.g., Vermont Progressive Party) suggests there will be a candidate who focuses on housing justice — emphasizing rent stabilization, cooperative housing, and preservation of affordability.
Housing Position (likely)
Typical platform elements include:
Rent control or caps: Limiting annual rent increases, stronger tenant protections.
Housing as a human right: State-funded social housing, community land trusts, preservation of manufactured-home parks.
Zoning reform for equity: Pro-affordability zoning, eliminating minimum lot-sizes, supporting multi-family housing in every community.
Implications & take-aways
If this candidate becomes major, their platform will shift the housing debate toward affordability and tenant protections rather than just supply. For renters and low-income Vermonters, this could signal a sharper focus on rental unit production and rent-burden relief, though financing and supply remain hurdles.
5. Where the Candidates Conflict — and What That Means for Housing
Now that we’ve introduced the major players and their housing emphases, let’s compare where they diverge and what that means in practical terms for Vermont’s housing landscape.
Supply-Growth vs Affordability/Protection
The “supply” camps (Scott, Pieciak) emphasize building more units faster, reducing regulatory friction, and unlocking financing.
The “affordability/protection” camps (Balint, Progressive candidate) emphasize ownership access, subsidy programs, rent-caps and tenant protections.
From a metrics standpoint:
Supply-focused policies may lower median time-to-permit, increase mortgage‐origination volumes, and gradually lower prices by increasing stock.
Protection-focused policies may put immediate relief on rents, but could reduce investor incentives or slow supply unless paired with production tools.
Home-Ownership vs Rental Focus
Scott and Pieciak lean more ownership-oriented (though rental production isn’t absent).
Balint and Progressive candidates emphasize both ownership access and rental unit affordability — which matters because Vermont’s rental stock is under stress in many regions.
From the loan/finance metrics side:
Ownership focus correlates with increased purchase-loan originations and refinancing.
Rental focus correlates with voucher utilization, affordable-unit starts, and tax-credit production — more complex to track, but key for overall housing health.
Regional Variation & Local Control
Vermont’s geography matters.
Supply-oriented candidates may emphasize statewide zoning reforms or modular homes to help rural counties.
Affordability-oriented candidates may emphasize targeted subsidies for high‐cost regions (ski-towns, lake-districts) or preservation of manufactured-housing parks.
From metrics: permit-time improvements need to happen everywhere; if they improve only in urbanizing towns and not rural zones, inequality will widen.
Financing, Investor Confidence & Delivery
Large unit-target promises (especially rental/affordable housing) require credible financing, predictable policy, investor appetite and development delivery timelines. A candidate promising new units must address:
How to fund construction and subsidies (state bonds, tax credits)
How to speed up approvals and delivery (permit timelines)
How to maintain investor confidence (stable rules, risk management)
Failure in any of these will mean rhetoric doesn’t convert into real units.
6. What This Means for Borrowers, Renters, Developers & Investors in Vermont
Beyond the politics, here’s how the election and housing policy debate will impact key stakeholders — and what you should watch.
Home-Buyers (Especially First-Time Buyers)
If a winning candidate emphasizes home-ownership access and lowers regulatory/finance cost, you may see higher mortgage-origination volumes, more competitive rates for first-time buyers, and down-payment assistance programs.
BUT: If supply remains tight (few new units), the benefit may be muted — fewer homes still means competition.
Watch processing times: if closing times improve (faster underwriting, fewer bottlenecks), that’s a sign of improved access.
Renters & Affordable Housing Seekers
If rent-caps, protections or large production of affordable units are part of the next administration’s agenda, you may see slower rent growth and more affordable rental stock.
However, if investor/financing flows slow or supply lags, you may still face long wait-lists.
Watch turnover and vacancy rates: if vacancy remains low and new unit starts remain stagnant, renters remain in tight markets.
Developers & Investors
A candidate emphasizing streamlined permitting, zoning reform, and state financing will likely encourage more starts — which means more supply and possibly reduced upward pressure on prices.
Conversely, if investor-risk (due to policy uncertainty) rises (e.g., drastic rent-caps or tax-changes), investor appetite may retract, slowing supply.
Watch newly approved tax-credit projects (via VHFA) and how fast they move from approval to construction — delivery timing matters.
Lenders & Mortgage industry
If mortgage-origination volumes rise, lenders may need staffing and underwriting capacity. Processing times (application to funding) are an indicator of health.
Government-insured loan segments (USDA, VA) are important in rural Vermont — if those flows are disrupted (federal backlog, state program delays), lenders will feel it.
Watch for policy announcements (home-buyer assistance, tax incentives) that may change borrower profiles, risk models or product demand.
7. Near-Term Policy Watch & Key Indicators to Follow
Here are some of the things you should keep an eye on in the months leading into the 2026 election — they will indicate how serious each candidate is and how likely their policies are to succeed.
State budget allocations for housing: Are new funds being unlocked for down-payment assistance, affordable rental production, or modular homes?
VHFA QAP changes: The draft 2026–27 plan shows priority for new affordable construction and down-payment assistance.
Local tax-exemption or zoning changes: Example: Burlington’s charter ballot item for homestead-property-tax exemption is a micro-indicator of willingness to act locally.
Permit/approval time metrics: Are towns and counties reporting faster permit turn-around? Are ADUs or modular homes being permitted more readily?
Mortgage originations and loan-application volume: Monitor lender reports to see whether home-ownership access is improving.
Affordable-housing unit start/approval numbers: The earlier the pipeline moves (approval → construction → occupancy), the more credible a candidate’s delivery promise.
Regional divergence: Are rural counties improving proportionally to growth counties (Burlington region)? If not, equity concerns will be central to campaign debates.
8.Using This Guide as a Vermont Voter or Stakeholder
As you evaluate candidate statements and campaign materials in the 2026 Vermont mid-terms, keep this guide in mind:
Don’t just listen for promises of “more housing” or “lower rent” — ask for numbers, timelines, and funding sources.
Match candidate claims against the metrics above (origination volumes, permit times, financing flows).
Consider your region: Burlington vs rural Vermont — what works in one may not in the other.
Recognise the difference between ownership access and rental affordability — they are related but distinct.
Be aware of investor/financing signals: Preventing policy risk helps ensure supply actually grows rather than stalls.
Ultimately, the 2026 Vermont elections aren’t just about electing a person — they’re about selecting a housing-policy framework that will determine whether Vermont eases its housing crunch or simply inherits it. Whether you’re a homeowner, renter, developer or lender, the outcome will matter in how many homes are built, how quickly they are financed, and whether your housing cost grows or stabilizes.
