2025 National Real Estate Sales Trends

Analysis: 2025 National Real Estate Sales Trends

In a dynamic housing market shaped by rising interest rates, shifting supply, regional divergence and macro-economic pressure, the national real-estate landscape is once again entering a phase of adjustment. This year, much of the U.S. market is re-balancing from the red-hot post-pandemic surge and is now caught between elevated borrowing costs, affordability headwinds, inventory accumulation and geographic variation. In this article we will examine how we “gauge” real-estate sales trends, then present what the data tell us about national and regional sales activity, supply/demand, and what lies ahead for buyers, sellers, industry professionals and investors.

Here's the data we'll be diving into:

Mortgage application volume: Including refinance & purchase-loan originations. In the housing market context, tracking how many homes are being contracted, how many closings are occurring, and how many purchase loans are being originated gives insight into demand, financing activity and the health of the sales pipeline. Declines in applications or originations may signal affordability issues, rate-shock, or buyer caution.

Processing times & closing times: Just as in the mortgage world where application-to-closing latency matters, in the housing sales market we monitor how long from listing → contract → closing. When processing times stretch, the risk of cancellations, price concessions or lost deals increases. Delays can be introduced by underwriting/backlogs, inspections, appraisal issues, or supply-side constraints.

Underwriting / backlog / delivery bottlenecks: What we're looking at here are insufficient inspection or appraisal capacity, overwhelmed title or escrow services, or issues with financing. If services are constrained, deals can back up, reducing volumes in the short term.

Loan Type: Homes financed with conventional loans, government-insured loans (e.g., FHA, VA), and portfolio/private loans behave differently. Some buyer segments (first time, low income, veteran) are more exposed to financing constraints, which feed into regional sales trends.

Region: Not every region of the country is in the same boat. Geography plays a large role. Regions reliant on specific industries (federal employment, defense contracting, tourism, etc) or those prone to natural-hazard risk (flood zones or wildfires) may experience different sales/closing dynamics.

Government Policy Impacts: Tax incentives, regulation of mortgage financing, flood or insurance rules, and affordable-housing programs all impact both buyer and seller behavior. When agencies issue guidance (for example, relaxed underwriting, temporary subsidies) the impact shows up in sales metrics.

By tracking these metrics we can assess key questions: Are closings being delayed? Are buyer pipelines slowing? Are rates or spreads impacting affordability? Is the supply of homes creeping up? Are buyers facing more friction or cost? Are regional markets diverging?

Broad Patterns Observed:

Across the U.S. this year, a number of broad patterns emerge in home-sales markets:

Sales volumes remain below the peaks seen in the 2020-22 surge, but show modest improvement in some markets. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing-home sales in June 2025 decreased by 2.7 % month-over-month, though regionally there were increases in the Midwest and West.
Inventory (the number of homes actively listed for sale) continues to increase. For example, in June 2025 the national inventory rose 28.9 % year-over-year, marking the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year inventory growth.
Time on market – the median number of days a home remains listed before sale – is rising, albeit still below or near pre-pandemic norms in many regions.
Price growth is modest or flat in many areas. According to one dataset, national home prices were up 1.7 % year-over-year in September 2025, to a median of around $435,295.
Affordability remains a major headwind: high mortgage rates, elevated home-prices (from the earlier surge) and higher insurance/taxes are constraining demand.

Regional Variation

We'll dive into four major U.S. Census regions: Northeast, Midwest, South, and West — and highlight key patterns and why they matter.

Northeast:

The Northeast continues to show relative stability in some respects, but with limited growth and tight supply in certain markets.

According to the Realtor.com June 2025 report, homes in the Northeast spent a median 53 days on the market, up 3 days year-over-year.
Inventory is increasing but less aggressively than in the South and West. In May 2025, the inventory of homes for sale rose 19.0% year-over-year in the Northeast, new-listing growth was around +3.0 % year-over-year, and median list-price growth was +0.1 % year-over-year.
Price per square foot in the Northeast rose by ~+3.1 % year-over-year in May 2025, indicating that value-adjusted growth is somewhat stronger than headline median price.
Markets in the Northeast benefit from comparatively tighter inventory and higher-barriers to entry (construction constraints, zoning, older housing stock). That supports relative price resilience. But affordability is highly challenged, especially in coastal and high-cost metros.

Implications: For sellers and buyers in the Northeast, expect slower—but not dramatic—motion. Buyers may have somewhat more leverage than a year ago, but supply is still not flooding the market. Agents should plan for moderate time on market and maintain realistic pricing. In high-cost markets (e.g., New England suburbs), the affordability squeeze remains acute.

Midwest:

The Midwest is emerging as one of the stronger relative performers in terms of sales velocity and price growth — in part due to affordability, job market resiliency, and lower entry prices.

In June 2025, homes in the Midwest spent a median 53 days on market, up 1 day year-over-year — implying slower increases in time-on-market than other regions.
Inventory is climbing: in May 2025, the Midwest saw active listings up 22.9 % year-over-year, with new listings up 8.2 %. Median list-price in the Midwest was down -1.6 % year-over-year in May, but price per square foot was +1.0 %.
The region’s relative affordability is supporting demand: smaller price jumps, fewer speculative supply surges, and less dependence on high-growth relocation or migration flows.

Implications: The Midwest offers opportunities for both buyers and investors seeking value and relative stability. Inventory gains give more choice; agents may need to moderate prices and marketing timelines accordingly. Sellers who priced aggressively may need to reconsider gain expectations. For buyers, negotiation leverage is growing.

South:

The Southern region is experiencing some of the most significant shifts: large inventory increases, slower days on market, and in some metros, price softening.

In June 2025, the South saw the median days on market increase by about 8 days year-over-year—the largest among regions.
In May 2025, active listing counts in the South rose ~31.5 % year-over-year, and new listings increased across all regions including the South.
Median list-price growth was slightly negative in some months: in May 2025, South was -0.1 % year-over-year for median list-price; price per square foot was -0.3 %.
Many Southern metros that surged during the pandemic-migration wave (Sunbelt, Florida, Texas, etc.) are seeing inventory catch-up, affordability deterioration, insurance or tax cost pressures and thus some moderation in demand.

Implications: Sellers in the South need to be especially aware of rising competition and slowing momentum. Pricing discipline is critical. Buyers in the South are benefiting from better choices and more negotiating power — though affordability is still stressed in many sub-markets. Real-estate professionals in the South should factor in potentially longer time-on-market and consider incentives or value-adds to stimulate interest.

West:

The Western region is showing some of the greatest softening—both in terms of sales pace and price movement—though there are highly varied submarkets (coast vs inland; high-hazard vs low-hazard).

In June 2025, the median time on market in the West increased by 7 days year-over-year.
In May 2025, median list-price in the West declined ~-0.7 % year-over-year; price per square foot was up ~+1.0 %, indicating size-adjusted values still rising modestly.
Inventory growth is strong in some Western metros, with “days to sell”, delistings, and price-cuts increasing meaningfully. For example: “among the 50 largest U.S. metros, 39 saw homes linger longer than last year… and the West had the largest slowdowns in days on market.”
Many Western metros face affordability headwinds, construction-cost pressures, higher taxes/insurance (wildfire risk, flood risk) and relatively lower migration growth lately.

Implications: In the West, sellers must be realistic about pricing and timelines; buyers may have stronger leverage. For investors, value-driven sub-markets (e.g., inland Western cities) may be more compelling than high-cost coastal markets. Agents should highlight differentiators (hazard risk mitigation, value vs coastal premium, suburb/inland trade-offs) to appeal to buyers.

How to interpret these Regional trends

For Buyers

Conventional-loan buyers (those financing via standard private lenders and not relying heavily on federal-agency constraints) face somewhat more favorable conditions this year: increasing inventory, slower sales pace, and more negotiating room especially in the South and West.
Buyers using government-insured or special programmes (first-time buyer, VA, FHA) should still be mindful of potential additional friction (e.g., delays due to underwriting, inspection, hazard-insurance or local constraints).
In high-cost or hazard-prone regions (coastal West, flood zones, wildfire zones), watch for slower price growth or possible softening which may favour well-informed buyer strategy.
Timing matters: inventories are improving, but many regions still have constrained supply relative to demand, so smart buyers will monitor new-listing flow, time on market and price-cut incidence.
Affordability remains challenged — while prices are not rising fast, elevated mortgage rates and high entry prices limit buyer pools in many metros.

For Sellers

The “gold rush” seller’s market has largely passed in many regions. Some markets may still appreciate modestly, but the days of rapid double-digit gains are largely behind us.
Sellers in the South and West need to be particularly cautious: inventory is up, time-on-market is rising, and buyers are more selective. Price cuts and delistings are more common.
In the Midwest and Northeast, sellers still benefit from tighter supply and moderate demand—but they also must be realistic in terms of price and marketing timeframe.
Listing strategy should emphasize staging, value, and differentiation, particularly where competition is growing. Sellers will likely benefit from preparing for longer selling timelines and possibly being flexible on timing or incentives (closing help, inspection allowances).
Agents should manage seller expectations: pricing anchored to peak-market levels may be overly optimistic in many regions.

For Lenders / Industry Professionals

While the article’s framework initially referenced mortgage-market flows, the analogue in home-sales is pipeline throughput, underwriting capacity, title/closing services. Slower sales mean fewer closings, longer cycles, increased risk of last-minute deal collapse, and more scrutiny on financing contingencies.
Mortgage lenders and real-estate brokers need to account for term-sheet negotiation, loan-type variation, and regional underwriting/closing risk. Areas with more inventory and slower sales may also see more renegotiation or appraisal/inspection issues.
From an investor and servicing viewpoint, slower sales (and hence slower closings) can mean longer exposure to interest‐rate risk, higher carry cost, and slightly elevated risk of underwriting deterioration (income/job changes) given longer timeline to closing.
Builders and developers: rising inventory and slower absorption in many regions implies caution on new-starts, particularly in the Sunbelt and West where supply is catching up. Moderation in pricing or incentives may be necessary.

For Real-Estate Professionals & Brokers

Expect more of a balanced market, rather than an automatic seller’s market. In many regions you’ll need to work harder to create urgency, differentiate listings, and communicate value to buyers.
For buyers: highlight inventory gains, negotiate effectively, and monitor price-cut trends or delistings. For sellers: underscore market conditions, set realistic pricing, and prepare clients for longer listing periods or offers with contingencies.
Pay attention to local nuance: even within regions there is variation (metro vs rural, inland vs coast, hazard-risk zones). Buyers and sellers should compare comparable homes and timelines rather than rely on broad regional narratives alone.
Marketing timelines are changing: where homes once sold in a week or less, now 50+ days on market is not unusual in certain metros. Manage client expectations accordingly.
Data-driven insights matter: monitor local new-listing flows, days-on-market trends, share of listings price-reduced or delisted, as these indicators can pre-empt broader shifts.

Inventory, New Listings & Supply Side

Processing Capacity & Underwriting Supply

Analogous to mortgage-market “supply” of underwriting capacity, the real-estate sales market has its own constraints: inspection/ appraisal capacity, title/escrow closing services, construction inventory, hazard-insurance underwriting, and local zoning/permits. When listings surge or markets shift, these services can become stressed and lead to delays or bottlenecks in closings.

In regions where multiple pressures converge (for example high new-listing volume + hazard-risk + regulatory constraints), the “throughput” of the sales market may slow, making time-on-market longer, increasing falls in absorption, and eroding seller pricing power.

New Listings (Listing Inflow)

In many markets this year, new-listing flows are rising. For instance, Realtor.com data for April, May and June 2025 show new listings increasing across most regions.
Rising new listings expand choice for buyers — which tends to moderate upward price pressure and extend marketing timelines.

Months of Supply / Backlog

In real-estate parlance, “months of supply” (how many months it would take current inventory to sell at current volume) is a key measure of balance. As inventory rises and sales volumes remain soft, months-of-supply expands, which shifts leverage toward buyers.

Similarly, a “pipeline backlog” can occur when inspections, appraisals or closings back-up. For example, if a region experiences sudden new listings plus inspection capacity constraints, homes may sit longer, under contract but unclosed, reducing effective supply for buyers in the near term and putting pressure on sellers and their timelines.

What Supply Trends Are Saying

Inventory is increasing significantly: in June 2025 inventory rose 28.9 % year-over-year.
Despite inventory gains, active listings remain modest compared to pre-pandemic norms: for example, June 2025 inventory still ~12.9 % below typical 2017–19 levels.
The share of listings with price cuts is rising: in June 2025, about 20.7 % of listings had price cuts—the highest share for any June since at least 2016.
Homes are taking longer to sell: 53 median days on market in June 2025, five more days than a year ago.
These supply-side signals (rising inventory, increased days on market, rising share of price cuts) are consistent with a market shifting toward greater balance or moderate buyer advantage.

Sales Volume & Market Activity

Let’s turn to how many homes are actually selling and what that means for demand, velocity, and regional variation.

Closed Sales & Volume

According to NAR, as of June 2025 existing-home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 3.93 million.
That figure remains well below the years prior to 2021, when sales were often in the 5-6 million annualized range.
The subdued sales volume reflects affordability headwinds (higher mortgage rates), lower buyer-pools, and slower movement of existing homeowners (who are “locked-in” by low earlier rates).

Timing Effects

Because new listings are increasing and sales velocity is slowing (longer days on market), some closings are being delayed or pushed into future months. That means a portion of “expected” sales in any given month may shift onward — which can create a catch-up or “back-loaded” volume effect when listings clear or when demand re-activates.

Secondary Market / Investor Effects

When sales slow, investor activity often becomes more visible: investors may step in where owner-occupiers face affordability limits or where properties offer yield/ value. In regions with slowing sales and rising supply, investor leverage (cash buyers, iBuyers, institutional rental acquisitions) may fill some of the gap.
However, the risk is that if investor demand softens (due to interest rate risk or capital cost), then the sales market may face further headwinds. Some market-reports suggest that in certain metros the surge of investor competition is moderating.

Regional Sales Dynamics

In the South and West, inventory and days-on-market are moving more markedly, which tends to slow completed sales.
In the Midwest and Northeast, sales volumes are steadier, supported by relative affordability or limited inventory, though still below historical peaks.
For example, some metro-areas in the Midwest are showing faster price appreciation and quicker sales compared to peers — an indication of strength.

Time to Close & Sales Cycle Duration

In the sales world, just like mortgage underwriting, timing matters. How long listings linger, how many days until contract, how many days from contract to closing—these all feed into perceptions of market health and risk.

Days on Market (DOM) Trends

June 2025: National median days on market reached 53 days, five days longer than the same time last year.
Regional slowdowns in DOM: South +8 days year-over-year; West +7 days; Northeast +3 days; Midwest +1 day.
In some metros in the South & West (e.g., Nashville, Orlando, Miami, Tucson) DOM increased by 12-20 days year-over-year.

What More Time on Market Means

LongerDOM may indicate weaker buyer demand, too many listings, or tougher seller pricing expectations.
Longer cycles increase risk of deal fatigue, buyer withdrawal, price reduction, delistings or renegotiations.
For sellers: budgeting for extended marketing time is prudent. For buyers: longer process may provide more opportunity to negotiate but also more risk of escalation.
For agents: monitoring when DOM starts nudging beyond pre-pandemic norms is key. In many markets now, DOM is near or modestly above 2017-19 norms—but some high-supply zones are already exceeding them.

What’s Driving These Trends & Risks Ahead

To understand where we go from here, we need to unpack the drivers of the observed trends and the risk factors ahead.

Affordability & Financing Pressure

High mortgage rates continue to suppress housing-demand. For example, one forecast suggests 30-year mortgage rates will average ~6.7 % in 2025 and end the year near ~6.4 %.
Elevated servicing and ownership costs (insurance, taxes, hazard mitigation) further squeeze buyers. As one article noted, “Owning a home remains prohibitively expensive for many Americans … the rising costs of buying a home … are exacerbated by persistently high borrowing costs.”
When affordability limits key buyer segments (first-time buyers, modest income households), sales volume and speed slow.

Inventory & Supply Catch-Up

The years 2020-22 saw historic supply shortage and pent-up demand. Now, with supply catching up (both via new listings and more homeowners deciding to move) and demand softer, the balance is shifting. Rising inventory gives buyers more options, which moderates pricing power for sellers.
In several hot-market Sunbelt metros, over-building or migration deceleration is emerging as a risk. For example, one article describes how Florida’s boom has turned into caution.

Regional Divergence & Migration Patterns

The pandemic-era relocation trends (to Sunbelt, lower cost metros, inland Western cities) are moderating. Some Sunbelt/Western metros are dealing with affordability, insurance/hazard costs and increasing supply. Meanwhile, more affordable inland or Midwestern markets are gaining attention—quietly increasing demand.
Shifts in employment, remote-work trends, hazard-risk perception (flood, wildfire) and cost of living all feed into regional variation.

Processing/Closing Delays & Backlog Risk

While this article focuses on real-estate sales (not mortgage processing), the analogy holds: any slowdown in inspections, hazard-insurance, appraisals, title services, or financing underwriting will lengthen sales cycles.
In regions with higher hazard-risk (flood zones, wildfire zones) or where home-insurance is rising sharply, sellers and buyers may face more friction.
Similarly, if lenders or servicing entities tighten underwriting or increase reserve requirements (due to perceived risk), then supply of buyer financing may reduce, slowing closings.

Investor and Secondary-Market Risk

Investor appetite matters: In a slower sales environment, institutional investors may pull back or switch strategies (from buying for flip, to long-term rental). If capital cost rises, that may reduce investor-driven demand which can weigh on sales in certain markets.

Duration Matters

One critical variable is time: if the market remains in “slower re-balance” mode for an extended period (12-24 months or more), risk of price corrections, higher delistings, and rising foreclosure/REO risk rises. A short “pause” is manageable, but a prolonged slump increases structural risk.

Region-Specific Highlights Worth Watching

Let’s call out a few special-case themes for certain regions or metro-areas that illustrate the broader divergence.

The Midwest is quietly becoming a smarter value-play region. For example, the metro area of Milwaukee–Waukesha (Wisconsin) recently emerged as the fastest-moving housing market among the 50 largest U.S. metros, with median list price ~$400 k and days-on-market just 32 in August 2025—faster than pre-pandemic.
Some formerly strong relocation markets (Sunbelt/Florida) are showing signs of cooling. For example: in Florida, net-migration growth dropped, insurance/tax/HOA cost pressures rose, and home prices began to decline in certain metros.
In many Southern and Western markets, the marketing timeline is lengthening noticeably: e.g., the metro of Nashville saw a +20 day year-over-year increase in days on market.
Smaller metro or second-tier cities are gaining attention due to affordability and value, rather than the mega-growth cities of the last decade. For example, the upstate NY county of Monroe County (Rochester) ranked 5th nationwide in March 2025 for market “hotness.”

Outlook: What to Watch & What It Means

What to Watch

Mortgage Rate Movement: Should 30-year rates decline meaningfully toward 6 % (or lower), affordability improves and that could support an uptick in sales. One forecast noted that a drop to 6 % could boost home-sales by ~3 % in 2025 and ~14 % in 2026.
Inventory Growth & Delisting Trends: If inventory keeps rising and delistings accelerate, price-pressure may increase. Conversely, if inventory growth slows, the market may stabilize.
Days on Market & Price-Cuts: A sustained rise in DOM or price-cuts/share of listings with reductions will be an early warning of weakening market.
Regional Lead-Lag Patterns: Some metros will lead the national trend (either positive or negative). Tracking second-tier markets may offer early signals.
Employment & Income Trends: Because affordability is tied to income growth and job security, any slowdown in key local economies (especially in migration-dependent metros) will hurt.
Hazard-Risk / Insurance / Regulation: In markets exposed to flood, wildfire, insurance cost-escalation or regulatory burdens, closings and demand may slow more sharply.
Investor Capital Flows: If institutional investor demand for housing weakens (due to higher cost of capital or return-pressure), that removes a buyer-segment which had undergirded some markets.
New Construction / Supply Pipeline: If new-starts spike while demand is soft, supply pressure may increase, accelerating the price-softening process in more vulnerable metros.

What It All Means for Each Group:

Borrowers & Homebuyers

If you are buying with a conventional loan in a less-supply-constrained region, you may have more negotiating power and longer decision windows.
If you are buying using a government-insured program (FHA/VA/USDA) or in a region with hazard risk/insurance issues, build in extra time and budget for closing delays or unexpected costs.
Consider staying flexible in location or product type — less-price-appreciated or inland markets may offer better value.
Be prepared for slower sales cycles and don’t expect multiple-offer wars everywhere.

Sellers

Review pricing carefully: market may no longer support aggressive premium pricing, especially in regions where inventory is rising.
Prepare for longer listing periods and build in buffer for marketing, inspections, price reductions or concessions.
Highlight differentiators: staging, condition, value-adds matter more in a less heated market.
In high-supply regions, consider incentives (pre-inspection, closing cost help, flexibility) rather than fixed premium pricing.

Lenders and Mortgage Professionals

Monitor time-to-closing, underwriting pipeline, and how regional supply/demand shifts are affecting deal velocity.
Segment risk by loan-type and region: e.g., VA/FHA/USDA closings may face more friction in hazard-risk zones or more rural areas.
Partner with real-estate agents to communicate longer timelines and set expectations with clients.
Be aware of investor/secondary-market risk: slower closings increase lock-expiration risk, pipeline risk, and servicing risk.

Real-Estate Agents & Brokers

Educate clients (buyers and sellers) about shifting market conditions: fewer “instant offers,” more negotiation, longer marketing cycles.
Use local data (new-listing flow, DOM, price-cuts) to support pricing strategy and market narrative.
For buyers: focus on value, timing flexibility and contingencies. For sellers: manage expectations, emphasize condition and value, and highlight realistic timeline.
Keep an eye on micro-markets: while regional trends matter, local neighborhoods or sub-markets may diverge (some still red-hot, others cooling faster).

Investors & Servicers

Investors should assess pipeline risk and regional supply dynamics — markets with rising inventory, slower absorption and price cuts require more caution.
Servicer should monitor underwriting/closing timelines, as longer cycles may elevate the risk of income/job changes, appraisal or inspection issues, and thus loan stress.
Long-term value investors may find opportunity in less pricey regions, but must account for slower upside and possibly higher landlord/operational risk.
Liquidity matters: in slower markets, exit risk may increase and holding cost may rise, so reflect that in investment models.

Overall, the housing-market engine is still running, not stalled — but it’s shifting gears. Understanding the key metrics (inventory, DOM, listing flows, price-cuts, regional divergence) provides the roadmap to navigate the slower, more nuanced path ahead.